Looking for a unique combination of technical indicators to form their own trading system that was also my dream once!
- 2023/2/25 18:23:37
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Introduction: I do forextradingmarket know how you are exposed to financial speculation do not know how your first transaction was completed, what forex trading session times the first trading variety, the first open position based on what but one thing is certain, each did not give up in the market to fight, persistent friends, have experienced a very painful stage if you have not experienced, please be prepared for 01 I am not a finance professional origin. The knowledge of finance forextradingtime economics are self-taught after graduating from university in order to learn these very necessary knowledge before, coincidentally, came into contact with financial speculation for the first time by the mysterious and complex K-line chart and a variety of dazzling technical analysis captured the eye, as if by a magic curse, from then on it is difficult to withdraw in understanding the basic common sense, with the software browse many mainstream technical indicators, looking back. You see a signal here is very accurate, there a signal if caught cashback forex will be rich every time you come into contact with a new technical analysis method, it is like opening a window, thinking back to the inventor of the trading system how to be amazed, laughing at the market, the trench to take thousands of gold in a million miles away, such as the bag to take 02 Of course, soon after the excitement, you will find that these signals are not The second time a hundred hits, the occasional miss is inevitable, there are always some exceptions with the naked eye visual inspection of the past, measuring the profit if the signal is accurate, it seems that some defects are also acceptable and then more contact with a few sets of trading systems, found that there are two major factions, one always tells you, soon to be a big thing! Be prepared for historical opportunities another faction is always worried, this is up too much, right, that fall has been outrageous, overbought and oversold so serious ah, hurry to enter before the market correction errors in the end who is right? The paper is not shallow, know the matter to try to open a live market! The magic is, just entered the fat sheep, oh, no, is the newcomers always make a lot of money I am no exception, in the initial stage of doing fat sheep, a few weeks can get a doubling of profits after a short while, eh? Technical indicators how to fail one after another to review the time, obviously very magical, very powerful ah naked eye review, always find some indicators in some specific time particularly heroic, and precisely another indicator will remind us that the time is not yet, as if there are many ministers in the kings advice, perhaps, listen to both is clear, partial hearing is dark? A single indicator always has flaws well, no one is perfect, indicators are not omnipotent, we have to build their own trading system, multiple indicators to complement the strengths and weaknesses, serious review, serious thinking, the secret must be in the details of the hard excellent review, indicator combination, repeatedly pondering, repeatedly chew, I do not know how many people spent how many sleepless nights, painstaking up and down to find out I am trapped in anyway day after day, there is time also The most mysterious and interesting thing in the world is the effectiveness of technical analysis, staring at the screen, repeatedly weighing, repeatedly pushing and pushing and pushing, countless times seems to come to an epiphany, countless times hope dashed, people like a demon, I do not believe that only I, can not have their own trading system, alone in the jungle of heaven, the work does not pay off, the sea of learning is endless The hard work, repeatedly inspire themselves, tenaciously through a sleepless night on the market trading system, no have not learned what line are drawn, what multi-cycle resonance analysis, but also bought a multi-screen together to see the hard struggle did not bring me real gains, there is only time and again hope into a bubble only if this road, I did not go through because of insufficient effort, I think my physical limits have I can not support me to do 03 in the end is useful? Why look always effective and use with always have problems? Last night, the west wind withered the blue trees, alone on a high building, looking at the end of the road to the end of the world, I want to send a colorful note and a ruler to know where the mountains are long and the water is wide, and then I learned some knowledge of psychology and neuroscience, I know that people have an insurmountable self-interest bias and hindsight bias self-interest bias means that you will definitely have a bias in their favorable direction, once you have confidence in a technical indicator, you will strengthen its advantages and ignore its flaws hindsight bias These are human nature, and human nature is objective, and it is very difficult to fight with human nature. The Turtle Trading Rule also promotes the idea that it is not the system that is not OK, it is your mindset that is not OK. The young people with no trading experience, because of the admiration, obey the words, so proud of Wall Street beat human nature to beat the market, beat yourself, you can win the future sounds so reasonable, but the mechanical implementation is so difficult ah, the heart is so tormented ah good, I am a code farmer, will write code (during college also took the top three national competition, took the venture capital, technology is barely reliable), why not use the computer to overcome human nature it? Why not use computers to overcome human nature? The computer will not have self-interest bias and hindsight bias (provided that your program can not use future information) Moreover, the combination of technical indicators out of the combination of the vast ocean, how can you use human beings to do these things? Besides, it is not good enough to do the turtle trading rules of that era, but not so good IT technology to think of this point, once again into the code, began the arduous architecture, coding, debug, historical backtesting, analysis of the effect, to find ways to improve the efficiency of computing, how to use parallel computing so that all the computing devices available together day and night to run up so cycle, tireless 04 The program is really a necessary skill for modern people to deal with information, programming gives people a lot of freedom in the process of processing information, no longer subject to the incompetence of many software, the upper limit mostly lies in your programming skills, rather than others from the screen full of technical indicators, back to the screen full of all kinds of code, the CPU is always full rotation day and night to compare really not as good as day and night to coding to efficient that I reaped the Holy Grail? I used to think I had reaped at this time, I am not alone in the struggle, there are a group of like-minded partners and I together to explore the tantalizing puzzle, we have to work tirelessly in order to understand the mystery that involves millions of people, countless people dreaming of the Holy Grail, almost all feasible, deterministic description of the technical system, after analysis, we have obtained a lot of interesting statistics As a result, after using a lot of computing resources and destroying some poor hard disks, we had some strange feelings about the statistics of the more well-known technical indicators, MACD can barely exceed 50% accuracy, just barely. Although there are many technical analysis strategies, the frequency and distribution are very uneven, and the curve is not smooth, or rather, the Sharpe rate is very low. Perfect technical analysis system, the smoothness of the curve is intoxicating, the high return, let people surprised E 200% annualized return, is expected in the premise of capital management and risk control of all available technical indicators to the cold, inhumane computer system statistics, unbiased, naked data coupled with mathematical planning, unquestionable objectivity of the technical analysis, is to do the best system online operation. Simply do the absolute system on line operation, the heroic as expected, the rate of return and the history of backtesting exactly the same seems, boiled to the head of the system effective for a small six months, began to appear difficult retracement, of course, for the retraction we are psychologically prepared for soon after the system resumed profitability, seems to return to the normal state in However, again and again unexplained deviation from expectations, so that my confidence has shaken I believe that At that time, I could no longer imagine how to improve the effectiveness of the system. What is not done well enough? Why is this problem so difficult to solve? Perhaps, is there an answer to this question? Does the Holy Grail, which countless pioneers have repeatedly pondered, exist? Is it bad robustness? What is it that the learning set and the test set repeatedly fall back on each other, worrying all the time about what is not being done right about overlearning? Some people misunderstand that there is no need to predict prices, in fact, as long as a system of positive expected returns is OK However, a system of positive expected returns requires probability and statistics can give, only the frequency Probability and historical frequency of occurrence, are two different things Since all technical indicators are summary analysis of past prices or trading volume, all technical indicators are an interpretation of past historical prices then from the From the information point of view, any combination of technical analysis cannot break through the information contained in the price Here is a popular article explaining why something called neuronal networks can fit any function: Neuralnetworksanddeeplearning Yes, neuronal networks, regardless of how the indicators play the game, are a function of historical prices, can they actually predict the future? Or to some extent obtain confidence intervals? Neuronal networks are inspired by the human brain, and this technology has a very rich accumulation of technology and ready-made tools to use their programming skills, and began to tinker with the parameters over and over again, to see the results have been used to combat does the past price, does not contain the future price direction? Just look at this argument, does not seem to deafening, however, almost all the technical analysis in the world, are based on historical prices to knock 05 This is how different a world, in my study of computer science and technology, the book tells you something, perhaps inaccurate, but you practice, according to the code in the book on the computer after most of the practice is successful on television, magazines, the Internet everyone discusses Something, are sure on the compiler to confirm, you will find that although there is a large number of bias, at least not arguing about something false but if the historical price in the past, is not a prediction of future prices that all the relevant books, countless people discussing the technology with great enthusiasm, the experts on television, the mouth of the experts, is it completely bullshit? Are you the only one who is smart when the whole world is talking nonsense? I am not so arrogant to this extent, I always feel that the problem is here, neuronal network is not a panacea, change its strong rival SVM, support vector machine just listen to the name of the high ah support vector machine as another promising field of artificial intelligence, is widely optimistic, of course, deep learning is a later thing, the year did not hear thanks to the open source world, let me Thanks to the open-source world, I was able to use the wisdom of my predecessors over and over and over again, and I was used to the disappointment, and I was used to the increasing dimensionality of the model, and the complexity was out of control. So much effort, so much effort, so much so many things hard to stay up, really hard to stay up 06 teenagers do not know the taste of sorrow, love on the floor love on the floor for a new word strong to say sorrow and now know all the taste of sorrow, want to say also rest want to say also rest but say the sky is cool good an autumn after a short escape, start thinking again, before overturning everything, let me then look back at the body of my heart and blood condensed, look back at the once charming figure, whether it is collapse in their own defects, or all of it, after all, is just a dream of yellow sorghum why I began to explore from this path down? Yes, I was hinted by the software, it seems that technical indicators contain the mystery, as long as the solution, you can get financial freedom from the beginning, I was guided not to listen to anyones guidance, what I would do? What would I have done if I had never known about technical analysis? How would I have faced the market? After letting go of all, let go of yourself, and reject all prejudices, began to think about some of the most original questions below a lot of content quoted from a number of articles on the shell network, I have also used a lot of previous exchanges in Zhihu we and let go of the market, do a little trip 07 said two paragraphs of the instructor to do pre-war mobilization, said that as long as the charge is fast enough, you will not be wounded you charge with all your might, but after the battle but covered in blood was carried back you say the words of the instructor is not right, the instructor said: that is because you do not charge fast enough, otherwise you will not be injured, remember to charge faster next time ah face so rogue explanation, you can only dumbfounded but you already know he is a liar, the reason is that he simply did not give the standard of charging fast enough, no matter how fast you charge, as long as you are injured, he can always claim that the reason is that you are not fast enough, his Saying that is always correct Li Danyang believes in Huang Daxian, she believes that everything in the world, including your mind and mine is completely controlled by a super weasel, including of course my writing of this article relying on this weasel, Li Danyang can explain everything, rain is its runny nose, thunder is its sneeze you do not yet compete with Li Danyang, because you can never prove that this weasel does not exist instructors and Li Danyang The statement has a commonality, that is to say that the law itself simply no way to deny it, using the terminology of the philosophy of science, that is, the statement itself does not have falsifiability If you count the last five waves after shorting failed, is your definition of the wave out of the question, we time to stretch a little longer you find that the fruit can explain the strongest third wave, but you find a sudden turn, in fact, you look at the last wave The next three waves are not yet finished how to end it? In fact, the three waves ended long ago, you counted the wrong folks know what Im talking about? This theory can never be wrong! How to say it all round 08 Lets assume a scenario: A, B two people for the sun rises respectively put forward two views: A: the sun rises from the east B: the sun rises from all directions which, A is can be proven false, as long as we find once the sun does not rise from the east, you can prove A is wrong but Bs theory can be said to be perfect, simply can not find any way to prove In fact, neither A nor B has any way to prove that their theories are correct. As theory, when viewed in its entirety, is this: the sun has risen from the east since humans established the direction, thus inferring that the sun will rise from the east from the formation of the earth to its demise. If A and B want to prove that they are correct, then they need to have evidence of all the suns rising direction from the formation of the earth to its demise, which is impossible. All are unreliable 10,000 examples can not prove that only a real counter-example is enough to falsify the premise that the problem is falsifiable If a theory, not falsifiable, then there is no scientific value too many schools of technical analysis, the declared theory, even falsifiability does not have this and the instructor and Li Danyang does not have any essential difference, has, but a large pile of graphics put together After the appearance of a pattern, it is the dealers entry, here implies the fermentation of investor sentiment these remarks sound very likely yes, there is a possibility, how to prove that the K line is not the dealer bought it? How to prove that it is not the emotional agitation? I anyway, there is no way to point out where they are wrong, there is always the possibility that whenever their technical analysis fails, they will always tell you to overlook something, whether he has previously stated or not, perhaps, is his latest discovery it, the system is finally fixed, huh that the statistical analysis we did before is falsifiable? Yes, into or not, look at the long and short are determined, can not cheat either profit or loss, there is no ambiguity in the understanding of the unfalsifiable is a rogue, is superstition, we then review, human thinking methods, human beings to draw conclusions in two ways: deductive method and inductive method we are familiar with the three paragraph theory is a good example: A all people will die B Socrates is a human C Socrates will die This deduction is the deductive method, we through the known universal laws and a fact, can infer a definite conclusion this method is called deductive inductive method is not the same A Plato finally died B Socrates finally also died C people will eventually die inductive method of starting point is not a definite law, but the observed phenomena, we observe the phenomena and from them to sum up some possible laws finally form our understanding of We observe the phenomena and draw from them some possible laws, and finally form our summary of the laws.09 On these philosophical issues, we recommend reading Philosophy of Science (Douban) Humes assertion is old, but it is still a magic spell. Because the exception of one sample is enough to falsify, even if the previous 100 million successful samples, there is no way before people see the swan are white, the word black swan is basically equivalent to the turtle hair and rabbit horn, meaning something that does not exist until the great sea age, people in Australia really found the black swan induction method can never get rid of this fate, the word black swan also changed from the meaning of the turtle hair and rabbit horn to the meaning of history never This is a comprehensive upgrade on the construction of trading systems. This is a brand new start on the journey of a trading career. 010 deductive law is strictly reliable. The philosophy of science should be something that you should go through before learning any skills, but before I was so stupid that I couldnt wait to understand the experience of my predecessors, and I didnt even know what kind of attitude I should have towards the experience, which was stupid. I was not able to escape from the curse of induction, and regardless of their own eternal inability to break away from the eternal defects of induction, in terms of induction itself, they are not good induction after getting rid of everything I used to believe in, learning real knowledge, and see the sad limits of human intelligence, I finally got a release, a great release Yes, even if it is induction, these technical analysis can not talk about Upscale actually cheated for so long, only to blame their own stupid, their own too eager to see something human brain is a pattern recognizer, and evolution always requires you to quickly identify patterns so that when I see the fancy technical analysis, always eager to give their own pattern recognition stupid is evil, to pay the price for their own stupidity, countless days and nights is the price I am not wronged 011 Since then, off the bone hate myself for not learning philosophy earlier, hate myself for rushing to get visible knowledge, and not thinking deeply about thinking about this thing hate myself for thinking that diligence and hard work will pay off no eyes, running wildly on the road to destruction, there will be no God to pity their own bear the cause and effect, no one can replace no longer dwell on the neuronal network or SVM is not wronged the ability to technical analysis from the falsifiability and deductive induction The difference between falsifiability and deductive induction has been enough insight into the difference to re-examine the strategy, the original years of bulls-eye drill the wrong place plus in the process of exploration to learn a lot of knowledge of finance, greatly broadened the horizons no longer trapped themselves in a single market price guessing up and down in fact, I have completely given up price guessing, originally thought that only guessing prices is the only way to profit, which It is the sin of not learning, ignorance is the sin of re-starting, get rid of the habit of thinking, the basic condition of falsifiability, strict deduction as a way of inference, circumvent the inductive method, re-formulate the strategy God pity, took the big detour, finally set foot on the right path 012 at first wanted to learn and understand the philosophical aspects of knowledge, and did not bring a strong purpose who had expected, violently touched so much time The problem of struggling with the crux of the problem is like a hike in another country, a chance encounter with a soulmate moths and snow willow golden strands of laughter and dark fragrance to go to the crowd to find him a thousand hundred degrees suddenly look back, that person is in the, the lights at the end of the author: Xu Zhe